# Table 4: Supply-Demand Dynamics

## Model Summary

| Model | Dep Var | N | Countries | R² | ρ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1a: safe_supply → 10y | real_bond_10y | 727 | 23 | 0.226 | 0.891 |
| M1b: Z + safe_supply → 10y | real_bond_10y | 727 | 23 | 0.306 | 0.881 |
| M1c: global_oadr → 10y | real_bond_10y | 727 | 23 | 0.491 | 0.857 |
| M1d: excess_demand → 10y | real_bond_10y | 727 | 23 | 0.152 | 0.895 |
| M2a: safe_supply → conv yield | lending_govt_spread | 246 | 11 | 0.073 | 0.712 |
| M2b: Z → conv yield | lending_govt_spread | 246 | 11 | 0.158 | 0.676 |
| M3a: debt×safe → spread | sovereign_spread | 722 | 23 | 0.233 | 0.733 |
| M3b: Z×debt → 10y | real_bond_10y | 722 | 23 | 0.314 | 0.879 |
| M3c: Z×safe_debt → 10y | real_bond_10y | 722 | 23 | 0.306 | 0.883 |
| M5: n_safe + Z → 10y | real_bond_10y | 803 | 23 | 0.039 | 0.913 |

## Key Coefficients

| Model | Variable | Coef | SE | p-value | Sig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1a: safe_supply → 10y | safe_supply_ratio | -2.8930 | 0.9207 | 0.0017 | *** |
| M1b: Z + safe_supply → 10y | Z_1 | 30.5233 | 18.2925 | 0.0956 | * |
| M1b: Z + safe_supply → 10y | Z_2 | -3.3322 | 2.3941 | 0.1644 |  |
| M1b: Z + safe_supply → 10y | Z_3 | 0.0988 | 0.0881 | 0.2626 |  |
| M1b: Z + safe_supply → 10y | safe_supply_ratio | -2.6405 | 0.9379 | 0.0050 | *** |
| M1c: global_oadr → 10y | global_oadr | -64.6190 | 7.4465 | 0.0000 | *** |
| M1d: excess_demand → 10y | safe_excess_demand | 3.1588 | 4.7107 | 0.5027 |  |
| M2a: safe_supply → conv yield | safe_supply_ratio | -4.2684 | 1.2050 | 0.0005 | *** |
| M2b: Z → conv yield | Z_1 | 10.0638 | 17.5898 | 0.5678 |  |
| M2b: Z → conv yield | Z_2 | -1.1730 | 2.3233 | 0.6141 |  |
| M2b: Z → conv yield | Z_3 | 0.0402 | 0.0857 | 0.6393 |  |
| M2b: Z → conv yield | safe_supply_ratio | -3.8249 | 1.2349 | 0.0022 | *** |
| M3a: debt×safe → spread | govt_debt_gdp | 0.0105 | 0.0048 | 0.0290 | ** |
| M3a: debt×safe → spread | safe_issuer | 0.6457 | 0.5891 | 0.2734 |  |
| M3a: debt×safe → spread | debt_x_safe | -0.0111 | 0.0053 | 0.0351 | ** |
| M3b: Z×debt → 10y | Z_1 | 7.2351 | 31.5731 | 0.8188 |  |
| M3b: Z×debt → 10y | Z_2 | -1.1648 | 4.1024 | 0.7765 |  |
| M3b: Z×debt → 10y | Z_3 | 0.0456 | 0.1505 | 0.7617 |  |
| M3b: Z×debt → 10y | govt_debt_gdp | -0.0019 | 0.0089 | 0.8300 |  |
| M3b: Z×debt → 10y | Z_1_x_debt | 0.6312 | 0.3932 | 0.1088 |  |
| M3c: Z×safe_debt → 10y | Z_1 | -25.2791 | 27.4886 | 0.3581 |  |
| M3c: Z×safe_debt → 10y | Z_2 | 3.7081 | 3.6131 | 0.3051 |  |
| M3c: Z×safe_debt → 10y | Z_3 | -0.1499 | 0.1330 | 0.2602 |  |
| M3c: Z×safe_debt → 10y | govt_debt_gdp | -0.0045 | 0.0069 | 0.5163 |  |
| M3c: Z×safe_debt → 10y | safe_issuer | -0.1259 | 0.5053 | 0.8032 |  |
| M3c: Z×safe_debt → 10y | Z_1_x_safe_debt | 1.2662 | 0.4055 | 0.0019 | *** |
| M5: n_safe + Z → 10y | Z_1 | 45.0656 | 18.1704 | 0.0133 | ** |
| M5: n_safe + Z → 10y | Z_2 | -4.7698 | 2.3937 | 0.0466 | ** |
| M5: n_safe + Z → 10y | Z_3 | 0.1390 | 0.0888 | 0.1180 |  |
| M5: n_safe + Z → 10y | n_safe_issuers | 0.0295 | 0.0114 | 0.0096 | *** |

*Controls: rgdp_growth, inflation, fiscal_bal_gdp, kaopen, nfa_gdp_lag*
*PanelGLS with AR(1) correction.*